AGP Executive Report

Airlift Recovery: Qatar Airways says it will lift weekly flights to Cape Town from 7 to 10 from 16 June, as it rebuilds routes after Iran-war airspace disruptions, with more capacity also planned for Cairo, Dar es Salaam, Lusaka–Harare, Maputo–Durban and a new Port Sudan service from 2 July. Security Shake-Up: In Mozambique, the arrest of Quissanga district administrator Sidónio José over alleged diversion of humanitarian aid is being read as a sign of shifting willingness inside the security establishment to pursue politically sensitive cases. Water Push: President Daniel Chapo launched Mozambique’s 2026–2036 water security plan, saying the country needs about US$4.5bn to expand water and sanitation, while government expects roughly US$76.8m from LNG revenues this year. Transport & Tech: Yango plans at least US$150m in African expansion, targeting 10 more countries in 2026, and is also rolling out Yango Tech with AI and digital infrastructure services. AFCON Focus: CAF confirmed AFCON 2027 qualifying groups in Cairo, with Mozambique drawn in Group J alongside Senegal, Sudan and Ethiopia.

Anti-migrant violence in South Africa: New protests and attacks linked to groups like Operation Dudula are again putting African migrants in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal on edge, with the latest coverage stressing that real frustrations over jobs and crime can’t justify intimidation or violence—and noting the country’s long history of xenophobic waves. Mozambique security and politics: In Gaza province, another Anamola member, Pedro Chauke, was shot dead and his car stolen, adding to a string of killings of opposition figures. Mozambique development: President Daniel Chapo launched a 10-year National Water Security Compact aiming to lift water access and sanitation while building climate resilience. Aviation and trade: Qatar Airways is resuming and adding flights across Africa, including new service to Port Sudan from July 2. Business and energy: South Africa’s gas industry is urging a more centralised state role to avert a looming “gas cliff” after Mozambique’s Pande-Temane supply declines.

Mozambique Water Push: President Daniel Chapo has launched the National Water Security Compact 2026–2036 in Maputo, aiming to lift clean water supply to 75% and sanitation to 60% by 2036, with about US$4.59bn earmarked for dams, reservoirs, monitoring and upgrades to schools and health centres. Cabo Delgado Tensions: In Gaza province, another Anamola member, Pedro Chauke, was shot dead at home, following the killing of another party coordinator earlier this month—raising fresh alarms about attacks on opposition supporters. EU Security Support: The EU’s EUMAM Mozambique mission has been extended through the end of the year to keep training and capacity-building for Mozambican quick-reaction forces. Regional Energy Debate: South Africa’s gas industry is urging a more centralised state role to avert a “gas cliff” after Mozambique’s Pande–Temane supply declines post-2028. Business & Trade: Mozambique is also expected to market about 14.6 million tons of agricultural products in the 2026 campaign, up 26% year-on-year.

Afreximbank Boosts Trade Finance: Afreximbank has injected US$15m into Ecobank Zimbabwe to help local SMEs—especially in agribusiness, manufacturing, healthcare, logistics, tech and creative industries—tap regional and continental export value chains. Wildlife Trade Warning: A new analysis says Hong Kong and Singapore imported over a million live wild birds from 2006-2020, with nearly two-thirds from Africa, raising alarms over weak regulation, invasive species and disease risks. Urban Forum Spotlight: WUF13 in Baku is drawing global media attention as leaders push affordable housing and sustainable urban development, with Pakistan’s Punjab delegation set to present its housing project. Mozambique Finance Watch: Mozambique’s public debt has climbed to 1.090 trillion meticais (about US$17.1bn) over five years, reaching 72.23% of GDP, as financing conditions tighten. Cahora Bassa Moves on LAM: HCB approved buying 25.2% of Mozambique Airlines (LAM) as part of a wider state-led restructuring plan.

Affirmative Action Push: Ghana’s Gender Minister Agnes Naa Momo Lartey urged media to actively help implement the 2024 Affirmative Action Gender Equity Act, saying the law now needs real-world enforcement to fix “historical imbalances.” Mozambique Debt Watch: Mozambique’s public debt climbed to 1.090 trillion meticais (about $17.1bn) over five years, reaching 72.23% of GDP, with financing pressures worsened by delays in servicing. Cahora Bassa Moves on LAM: Cahora Bassa approved buying 25.2% of Mozambique Airlines (LAM) as part of a wider state restructuring plan, alongside other public firms taking stakes and subsidies. Regional Climate Coordination: African parliamentarians meeting in Nairobi backed a stronger unified push for Africa’s priorities in global climate and methane talks, including financing that fits development realities. Health Partnership Spotlight: Zimbabwe’s Cure Children’s Hospital says public-private collaboration has helped treat 5,000+ children with congenital conditions over five years.

Healthcare Partnership: Zimbabwe is giving thousands of children born with congenital conditions a second chance through a public-private push with Cure Children’s Hospital—over 5,000 children treated in five years, helping them walk, speak and return to school. Mozambique Economy Watch: Mozambique’s banks are starting to feel the strain, with lenders reporting losses tied to impairments and sovereign exposure—signs that the “protected” banking era may be fading. Cabo Delgado Security: Mozambique’s bishops are renewing calls for peace and condemning renewed attacks on Christian communities in Cabo Delgado, as violence and displacement continue. Regional Climate Push: African legislators meeting in Nairobi are urging a stronger, coordinated African stance on climate and methane talks, with financing and development priorities at the centre. Food & Water Pressure: Lake Malawi’s shoreline is reclaiming land from lakeside businesses and farms, leaving some tourism operators counting losses and saying government support has been thin. Southern Africa Energy: South Africa says it earned about R18.8bn from electricity exports to eight neighbours, including Mozambique, as regional power trade remains a key lifeline.

India-Africa Summit Push: India is hosting the 2026 India-Africa Forum Summit in New Delhi (28–31 May), aiming to turn political, security, trade and digital cooperation into a signed “New Delhi Declaration.” Climate & Methane Unity: African parliamentarians meeting in Nairobi backed a stronger, coordinated push for one continental voice on climate and methane talks, arguing financing must match development and food-security realities. Mozambique Economy Under Strain: Fresh reporting says Mozambique is “faltering” rather than collapsing, with worsening poverty, weaker services and tighter bank conditions as debt and external shocks bite. Cabo Delgado Pressure: Mozambique’s bishops again condemned attacks on Christians in Cabo Delgado, calling for peace and an end to religious intolerance. Regional Trade & Connectivity: Malawi’s Roads Authority says the Liwonde–Matawale M3 upgrade will start later this month, funded by the World Bank, to boost trade links. Energy & Food Risks: Reports tie the wider region’s fuel and fertiliser squeeze to disruptions linked to the Hormuz crisis, raising food-security fears.

Cement Trade Tensions: PPC is warning of “dumping” after South Africa’s Competition Commission approved a Chinese-backed bid for AfriSam, saying West China Cement could shift production to Mozambique and flood local markets with cheaper imports. Mozambique Economy Watch: A new read on Mozambique’s slowdown says the country isn’t in crisis mode like a currency collapse, but key indicators have been eroding for years—raising poverty and squeezing jobs. Banking Pressure: Mozambique’s banks are starting to feel the strain, with lenders reporting losses tied to impairments and sovereign exposure. Maritime Security: India’s IOS Sagar docked in Colombo with a 16-nation crew, underscoring growing pressure on Indian Ocean shipping from piracy, smuggling and other threats. Tech Push: Avantis Technologies says it’s aiming for listings on VFEX and Tel Aviv after launching a locally built laptop. Energy & Food Shock: Gulf shipping and fertilizer disruptions are hitting Africa’s most vulnerable farmers, while Mozambique’s wider economic stress is set against rising fuel costs.

Cabo Delgado Violence: Mozambique’s insurgents are striking again across multiple districts, targeting roads, villages, artisanal mining sites and Catholic churches—raids and intimidation tactics rather than a clear push for territory, as attacks are reported in places including Macomia, Mocímboa da Praia, Nangade, Mueda, Meluco, Ancuabe and Chiúre. Prison Probe: In Maputo, SERNAP says Italian businessman Umberto Sartori—accused of drug trafficking, money laundering and forgery—died in Maputo Top Security prison after a hunger strike, with technical investigations still under way. State Oversight: Prime Minister Benvinda Levi urged transparency and stronger controls at state-owned companies, swearing in new leaders at IGEPE, ENH and the Housing Development Fund. Regional Economy: South Africa’s electricity exports to eight neighbours are forecast to bring in about R18.8bn, including sales to Mozambique. Digital Payments: Mastercard and Letshego launched a Mozambique debit card push to expand secure local and cross-border payments.

Cabo Delgado Security: Insurgent attacks are spreading again across Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado, with reports from Macomia, Mocímboa da Praia, Nangade, Mueda, Meluco, Ancuabe and Chiúre, targeting roads, villages, artisanal mining sites and Catholic churches—suggesting intimidation and propaganda as much as territorial fighting. EU Military Support: The EU has extended EUMAM MOZ for six more months, keeping its mission running until December to keep building the Mozambican Armed Forces’ quick reaction and logistics capacity against Islamist terrorism. Mozambique Economy: Foreign direct investment jumped 60.2% to $5.6bn in 2025, driven mainly by extractives—especially LNG-linked projects in the Rovuma Basin. Food Policy: Mozambique is pushing to boost investment in food fortification to cut micronutrient deficiencies, with a validation study aimed at strengthening the national programme. Regional Weather Shock: South Africa declared a national disaster after deadly flooding and extreme weather, a reminder of how quickly climate stress can disrupt livelihoods and transport links.

Mozambique LNG & investment surge: Mozambique’s FDI jumped 60.2% to $5.6bn in 2025, with extractives taking $5.2bn (over 91% of inflows), driven mainly by Rovuma Basin gas projects. Cabo Delgado security support: The EU has extended its EUMAM MOZ mission for six more months to keep building the Mozambican armed forces’ rapid reaction capacity against Islamist terrorism. Food security push: Mozambique is being urged to boost spending on food fortification—adding vitamins and minerals to staples like maize flour, sugar, cooking oil and iodised salt—to cut malnutrition and micronutrient gaps. Regional shockwaves: South Africa declared a national disaster after extreme flooding killed at least 10, while xenophobic violence fears continue to spill into diplomacy as Ghana moves to repatriate citizens from South Africa. Governance & services: A Mozambican minister says civil society is key to strengthening democratic rule of law, while South Africa’s unemployment and political turmoil remain in the spotlight.

Oil Market Jitters: With talks over Iran-US tensions still dragging and an American naval blockade removing about 2-million barrels a day, Brent has eased to around $100 instead of spiking—thanks to big global inventories and China drawing down reserves. Food–Fertiliser Shock: The same Hormuz disruption is now hitting fertiliser flows, with shipping down sharply and urea supply threatened, raising fears for farmers from Malawi to Mozambique. Mozambique Economy: Bank of Mozambique says FDI jumped 60.2% to $5.6bn in 2025, led by extractives and Rovuma oil-and-gas activity. Health Supply Strain: In Eswatini, demand for the HIV prevention injection Lenacapavir is outpacing stocks, leaving clinics short. Regional Energy Push: South Africa’s Eskom is partnering with Energy Vault on grid-scale gravity storage, with plans to scale across SADC. Mozambique Security: Police report arrests tied to international cartel links and growing concerns about local addiction and drug labs.

ANC Pressure Mounts: Ramaphosa faces a fresh political squeeze in Cape Town after the Constitutional Court’s Phala Phala-linked ruling, with ANC veteran Matthews Phosa warning of reputational damage if the party mishandles the fallout—while the DA says it won’t back an MK/ATM no-confidence push. Police Corruption Case: Suspended SAPS boss Fannie Masemola appeared in court with alleged cartel figure “Cat” Matlala over a multi-million rand tender scandal; the case is set to return on 26 June. Justice and Accountability: The JSE is seeking leave to appeal a Gauteng High Court order in the Tongaat Hulett former CFO censure and R6m fine matter. Mozambique Focus: Mozambique is moving to update protections against child labour as officials warn that minors are increasingly being used online for dangerous work. Regional Energy Push: Eskom and Energy Vault signed a deal that could bring 25MW/100MWh gravity storage to South Africa and expand long-duration storage across SADC. Food Security Worry: Mozambique and the region are also bracing for rising pest pressure and wider agricultural shocks.

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Push: South Africa’s Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen says an extra 2 million Dollvet vaccine doses have arrived from Turkey, bringing imports to 8 million since late February, with 5 million more expected soon—aimed at vaccinating 80% of the national herd by end-December 2026. Anti-Migrant Protest Probe: A Zimbabwean analyst urges South African authorities to identify who is driving and funding anti-migrant demonstrations in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, warning the unrest could be tied to wider political agendas. Terror Focus on Mozambique and West Africa: The US 2026 counterterrorism strategy flags West Africa, the Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin and Mozambique as active fronts, citing ISIS remnants and other extremist groups exploiting weak governance. Mozambique Security and Displacement: In Cabo Delgado, attacks continue to hit civilians and miners, with reports of hundreds displaced and humanitarian access under pressure. Regional Tech for Water: Limpopo basin countries roll out AI “digital twin” tools to manage transboundary water amid climate variability.

Disaster Response: South Africa has declared a natural disaster after torrential rains and storms since May 4 killed at least 10 people, wrecking thousands of homes in informal settlements across six provinces, with Cape Town ordering school closures and parts of Table Mountain shut. Regional Security: The US says extremist groups are regrouping across Africa, naming Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin as key fronts, alongside renewed threats flagged for West Africa, the Sahel, Mozambique, Sudan and Somalia. Africa–France Dealmaking: At the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi, President William Ruto pushed a “win-win” Africa–France partnership based on sovereign equality and mutual investment, not aid or extraction. Mozambique Politics: In Manica, Anamola leader Venancio Mondlane called for three days of national mourning after the assassination of his party’s coordinator in Chimoio, as police investigate. Mozambique Economy: Italy’s Renco says it has invested over €155m since 2012 and employs about 2,000 workers, mainly in Cabo Delgado. South Africa Tensions: Calls are growing for authorities to identify who is funding anti-migrant protests ahead of local elections.

STEM Push: Africa, with ExxonMobil Foundation support, has launched STEM Africa 2.0 to train 4,000 more youths (14–17) in STEM and AI, building on 10,000+ learners already reached across Angola, Mozambique, Namibia and Nigeria. Anti-migrant Pressure: South Africa is facing fresh calls to probe who is funding and organising anti-immigrant protests after violence targeted undocumented foreign nationals, with Zimbabwean analysts warning the issue is now tied to wider political currents. Mozambique Transport Relief: President Daniel Chapo handed over 190 natural gas-powered buses for Greater Maputo to cut fuel-cost strain and reduce double fares, with student transport subsidies also promised. Energy Investment Mood: Global investors are eyeing Africa for energy diversification, but execution and regulatory certainty are the make-or-break factors. Cabo Delgado Security: The US warns ISIS-linked operations are shifting further into West Africa, while Mozambique’s political killings continue to raise fears of impunity. Climate Risk: El Niño threats are intensifying worries across Southern Africa, with health and food systems among the most exposed.